With bluebonnets and other wildflowers painting Central Texas' fields and the tree canopies bursting with lush greens, it's hard to believe that March was actually pretty dry in the region. But drive by any creek — or what's left of it — and it's easy to tell that it hasn't rained a lot this year.
Across Texas, drought conditions have fluctuated a bit, but overall it's been worsening, with about 81% of the state experiencing some sort of drought — and the worst conditions have been since November, according to U.S. Drought Monitor data released Thursday.
More than 9.8 million of the state's 29 million residents live in drought conditions, the data show.
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Central Texas is no different, with conditions worsening throughout. Here's a snapshot of what we know:
- Nearly 43% of Travis County, in its western half, is experiencing extreme drought conditions, the second-worst level, which includes widespread water shortages, cracked soil and major crop failures. This is more than a 30% increase in a week.
- In the past two weeks, nearly 42% of Hays County has been placed in the exceptional drought category, the worst level, which is characterized by exceptional crop losses and increased fire risk.
- All of Williamson County is now in drought, with 18% of the county, in its western corner, being in extreme drought. Just a week ago, no part of the county was at that level.
- Nearly 14% of Caldwell County, running along its southern border, is in extreme drought.
- Most of Bastrop County is in moderate drought, characterized by some crop failures and possibilities of low water levels.
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How much rain did we get in March?
Not enough. Camp Mabry, the city's main weather station, recorded 1.64 inches for March, which is below the month's average of 2.28 inches, according to the National Weather Service.
For the year, Austin is pretty low, at nearly 3 inches below the average through this time. Camp Mabry has detected 4.68 inches. Usually Austin would have gotten 7.65 inches by this point, the weather service said.
Could April showers bring us out of the drought?
Maybe. For most of Central Texas, it looks as if conditions could get better this month.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that "drought removal (is) likely" for Austin, but not the entire county. Most of Travis County east of I-35 isn't expected to come out of the drought; however, NOAA said conditions are expected to improve.
Eastern Williamson County, including parts of Round Rock, along with almost all of Bastrop County and a large portion of Caldwell County could come out of drought in April.
For the rest of Central Texas, NOAA said the drought's going to stay, but improvements are expected.
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How are local water supplies?
About what you'd expect in these conditions: getting worse or not improving.
Data from the Lower Colorado River Authority, which manages the Highland Lakes for hydroelectricity and flood control, show that the current volume ofwater stored in the reservoir lakes, Travis and Buchanan,was about 1.01 million acre-feet. When full, the total volume should be about 2 million acre-feet. Anacre-foot is the amount of water it takes to cover anacre afoot deep.
Lake Travis, a regional water source and aquatic playground, is at 46% capacity, according to LCRA data. The water elevation at Mansfield Dam, which forms the lake, was 638.5 feet above mean sea level as of Monday. The average for April is 669.1 feet, according to the LCRA.
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Readings from index wells in the Edwards Aquifer, an underground layer of porous, water-bearing rock sitting beneath Central Texas, show slight improvement. At the start of March, the aquifer level at the J-17 index well in Bexar County had a 10-day average reading of 636.7 feet, about 32 feet lower than the historical March average,according to the National Weather Service. On Monday, however, the J-17 well's 10-day average was 635.7 feet, with a daily reading of 635.8 feet, theEdwards Aquifer Authority reported.
What's this week's forecast?
It's coming in hot, record-high temperatures up to 96 degrees forecast Monday in Austin, according to the weather service. Warm southerly and southeastern winds were expected to return later in the afternoon and through the night, with gusts ranging from 18 to 28 mph.
Tuesday is expected to be about the same, with temperatures getting up to 90 degrees and that southerly wind staying around, but with more humidity and clouds.
Don't expect rain until Wednesday, when Austin could see some afternoon showers that would cool things down for the region, with a high of 75 in the forecast.
That cooling trend is likely to continue Thursday and Friday, with highs of 65 and 63, respectively. Be sure to grab your umbrella, though, as there's a good chance it's going to rain — with a possibility of thunderstorms — starting Thursday.
Rain chances should begin to dwindle heading into the weekend.
